This page is inspired by PlanB's Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, to create the model for Chia® coin
Current S/F
Current Price
Market Cap
Next Halving
Comparing against other crypto coin's MarketCap
If Chia had the market cap of the price of Chia would be:
Greed and Fear Index
Extreme
Fear
Fear
Fear
Neutral
Greed
Extreme
Greed
Greed
50%
Neutral
The Greed and Fear Index measures market sentiment based on:
- Price Momentum: The percentage change in the price of Chia (XCH) over the last 30 days. Positive momentum shows greed, negative momentum shows fear.
- Market Volatility: The standard deviation of Chia's price over the past 30 days. More volatility means more fear.
- Trading Volume: The total number of Chia coins traded in the last 24 hours, adjusted based on recent trends. Higher volume can indicate more greed.
Halvings
Similar to Bitcoin, Chia® farming rewards also utilize Halvings. Chia®'s halvings will occur at the conclusion of each three-year period for the first twelve years. From the thirteenth year, block rewards will remain constant at 576 xch per day.
| Halving Dates | Blocks per day | Chia per day |
|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2021 - 19/03/2024 | 4608 | 9216 |
| 19/03/2024 - 19/03/2027 | 4608 | 4608 |
| 19/03/2027 - 19/03/2030 | 4608 | 2304 |
| 19/03/2030 - 19/03/2033 | 4608 | 1152 |
| 19/03/2033 - infinity | 4608 | 576 |
Total supply by the end of each halving cycle
| Halving cycles | Supply in xch |
|---|---|
| 1 | 10,091,520 |
| 2 | 15,137,280 |
| 3 | 17,660,160 |
| 4 | 18,921,600 |
Stock to Flow Formula and Price Prediction for Chia®
Using the formula explained in this mathematical model article, the stock to flow (SF) model for Chia® helps us understand the relationship between the available supply of Chia coins and their market value. This model allows us to project future price trends based on Chia's supply dynamics.
Key Facts Unique to Chia:
- Initial block reward: 2 XCH per block
- Halving interval: Every 3 years (approximately 5,045,760 blocks)
- Prefarmed coins moved to warm wallets: 1,268,174.31 XCH
- Block rewards halve every 3 years
Calculation of Stock to Flow Ratio (SF ratio): The SF ratio is calculated by dividing the current market supply of Chia coins by the annual supply generated by the network. The formula is:
SF ratio = Current Market Supply / Supply Per YearAdjusted Stock to Flow Ratio (halvedStockToFlow): To account for the halving of block rewards, we adjust the SF ratio using the formula:
This adjustment is important because it reflects the reduction in block rewards over time. As the block reward halves every 3 years, the SF ratio is multiplied by a factor of 2 for each halving cycle. This ensures that the model accurately reflects the decreasing rate of new coin issuance, which is used for predicting future price trends.
halvedStockToFlow = SF ratio * 2^(currentHalvingCycle - 1)This adjustment is important because it reflects the reduction in block rewards over time. As the block reward halves every 3 years, the SF ratio is multiplied by a factor of 2 for each halving cycle. This ensures that the model accurately reflects the decreasing rate of new coin issuance, which is used for predicting future price trends.
Derivation of Exponent (exp): The exponent (exp) is derived by performing linear regression on historical price data and the stock-to-flow ratios. The formula used is:
This exponent is used for predicting the model price based on the stock to flow model.
exp = ln((Market Value / (SF ratio)^-0.25))This exponent is used for predicting the model price based on the stock to flow model.
Stock to Flow Price Calculation: Once we have the exponent and SF ratio, we can calculate the model price (in USD) using the equation:
Model Price (in USD) = e^(exp) * (halvedStockToFlow) * Current Block RewardFuture Changes: The stock to flow ratio and the resulting price prediction will change in the future due to the halving of block rewards every 3 years. As the block reward decreases, the SF ratio will adjust accordingly, impacting the price prediction.
